ND professor predicts little change in policies with Andropov’s death

The death o f Soviet leader Yuri V. A ndropov has left the w orld w ondering what changes his succes­ sor w ill bring. D irector o f Soviet Studies at N otre Dame, G eorge Brinkley, told The Observer, “1 don’t think his death will have m uch effect at all. The issues are bigger than one man and the Soviet leadership is m ore than one man.” In a statem ent issued by the W hite H ouse staff, President Ronald Reagan hoped that the new Soviet leader could w ork w ith us to find a com m on ground and establish a mutually beneficial relationship. In ano ther statem ent, Secretary of State G eorge Shultz hoped that the new leadership in Moscow w ould strive for constructive cooperation in the search for peace. Many W estern leaders have m ade plans to attend the funeral to m o r­ row to streng then East-West rela­ tions. Reagan is sending Vice-President G eorge Bush to head the American delegation. C hancellor Helmut Kohl o f W est Germany, w ho did not attend Brezhnev's funeral, said he w ould go to Moscow. O ther W est German of­ ficials hoped that A ndropov’s suc­ cessor w ould move tow ards m ore positive East-West negotiations. Prime M inister M argaret Thatcher o f Britain, w ho did not a ttend Brezhnev’s funeral, is considering attending Andropov’s. China, w hich had just signed a $1.2 billion trade agreem ent w ith the Soviet Union, said relations be­ tw een the tw o countries could not im prove substantially until M oscow rem oves th ree m ajor obstacles — Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Soviet support for V ietnam’s o c ­ cupation of Cambodia, and Soviet troop presence on the Chinese b o r­ der. O ne big question that rem ains is w ho the new leader will be. All o f the possible candidates are m em ­ bers o f the Politburo. That body, com posed o f 12 voting m em bers and eight non voting m em bers, set overall policy for Russia. A senior State D epartm ent Kremlinologist p red ic ted that Konstantin C hernenko, a form er Brezhnev protege, w ould fill A ndropov’s vacancy. C hernenko was appointed head o f the funeral com m ission. At 72, many consider him too old for the position. “I think he fulfills all of the qualifications excep t ability,” Brinkley said, “He might be brought in as a tem porary arrangem ent. I d o n ’t expect him .” A nother possibility is Mikhail G or­ bachev. At 52, he is eight years younger than any o th e r m em ber o f the Politburo. Although he is an agricultural specialist he has been taking increasing responsibility in foreign affairs. A ccording to Brinkley, he has been traveling abroad in the past year possibly in preparation for som e higher posi­ tion. A th ird likely candidate is Grigory Romanov. “I think as a m iddle man Romanov might be the best bet, ” Brinkley said, “ He’s not too young o r too old.” At 61, he ha s long been considered a top p rospect for leadership o f the com m unist party according to The N ew York Times. W ith the new leader, policies are not expec ted to change significant­ ly. Althogh A ndropov died Thursday, the governm ent had operated w ithou t him for the past six m onths. Some analysts have said that a new Soviet leader, if too young, might not rem em ber the destruction caused by nuclear w eapons in W orld War II and have no personal experience to make him w ant to avoid war. Brinkley did no t think this was a valid concern. “They relive W orld W ar II every day o f the year,” he said, “They w ant to avoid w ar.” “Relations betw een us and the Soviets are bound to im prove, b e ­ cause they are so bad,” Brinkley said, “They are not aggressive or b e l­ licose bu t they do not anticipate any real solutions w ith us.” A ccording to Brinkley the Soviets think our main problem is capitalism. Brinkley said the Soviets probably did not w ithhold the announcem ent of A ndropov’s death. “It probably took them three or four hours to get their statem ent together, ” he said. The death was believed to be sudden b e ­ cause had A ndropov been in serious condition, his son w ould no t have been travelling abroad. C andidates fo r S tu d en t B ody President a n d Vice President debated last n igh t in the K nights o f C olum bus Hall. Chris Tayback, left, a n d h is ru n n in g m a te K elly F itzgerald are ru n n in g a g a in s t Rob Bertino a n d C athy David. M ore in fo rm a tio n on the ca n ­ d idates a n d their view s is on page 5.